Bitcoin Eyes Rebound to $96K From Current ‘Discount’ Zone: Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) appears poised for a “new uptrend,” according to multiple on-chain indicators, with analysts arguing that the recent decline toward $80,000 has created one of the strongest buy-the-dip opportunities of the year.
Data from CryptoQuant, Capriole Investments and price action metrics collectively suggest that Bitcoin may be significantly undervalued — potentially setting the stage for a rebound toward $96,000.
Below is the full breakdown.Bitcoin enters a “new uptrend,” according to multiple on-chain indicators, with analysts arguing that the recent decline toward $80,000 has created one of the strongest buy-the-dip opportunities of the year.
Data from CryptoQuant, Capriole Investments and price action metrics collectively suggest that Bitcoin may be significantly undervalued — potentially setting the stage for a rebound toward $96,000.
Below is the full breakdown.
Bitcoin enters a new “discount zone”
A key on-chain valuation metric, the Puell Multiple, has re-entered the discount zone, according to new data from CryptoQuant.
The indicator measures miners’ daily revenue relative to its 365-day average, helping to identify miner stress and long-term market valuation.
When the Puell Multiple falls below 1, miners earn less than usual, indicating financial pressure or a potential capitulation phase — conditions that historically coincide with strong accumulation zones.
At 0.86, Bitcoin is “undervalued and trading below fair value,”
CryptoQuant analyst Gaah said.
The last time the Puell Multiple hit a similar level was April 2025, when BTC traded near $75,000 — just before rallying more than 50% to its all-time high of $112,000 in May.
📊 Bitcoin Puell Multiple vs. Price
The analyst adds:
“All major correction reversals in Bitcoin’s history have begun from these discount regions. This pessimism is exactly where new uptrends form.”
MVRV Z-Score drops to two-year low — another strong bottom signal
Another influential indicator flashing bottom signals is the MVRV Z-Score, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value and adjusts for volatility.
Capriole Investments reported the metric has fallen sharply, reaching a two-year low on Nov. 22.
Historically:
- Major BTC bottoms coincide with steep drops in the MVRV Z-Score
- A cross below the green band indicates extreme undervaluation
- Previous crosses have preceded major rallies — sometimes 50% to 100%+
At 1.13, the indicator is now approaching the green band, suggesting BTC may be forming a local bottom, similar to late 2023 when an 80% Q4 rally followed.
📊 Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score
BTC price action now targets $96K
Price data from TradingView shows an 8.6% rebound from the local low of $80,500, supported by a bullish continuation pattern.
A bull flag confirms breakout
BTC broke above the upper trendline of a bull flag at $87,200 on Wednesday.
Currently, the price is retesting this level to validate the breakout:
- Successful retest → Target: $96,800
- This represents a +10.6% upside from current levels
📈 BTC/USD 4-hour chart
The relative strength index (RSI) has also risen from oversold territory to 51, indicating improving bullish momentum.
But not everyone agrees — possible downside still in play
Veteran trader Peter Brandt cautions that Bitcoin’s bounce to the $89,000 region may be a “dead cat bounce” — a temporary recovery before further declines.
This aligns with recent market liquidations:
- A final leverage flush below $80,000 remains possible
- Some analysts argue that long positions have not fully capitulated
- Funding rates remain elevated in pockets of the derivatives market
As Cointelegraph previously reported, the liquidation event earlier this week may not be finished, leaving room for one more volatile move.
⭐ Conclusion: BTC is undervalued — but short-term volatility remains
Based on Puell Multiple, MVRV Z-Score, and the bull flag structure:
✔ Bitcoin is undervalued
✔ Multiple indicators suggest a local bottom
✔ A rally to $96K is technically supported
✔ Long-term trend remains intact
But…
⚠ Short-term volatility may not be over
⚠ Another brief dip below $80K cannot be ruled out
⚠ Macro conditions and liquidity remain key factors
Overall, Bitcoin appears to be entering a high-probability accumulation zone, with multiple data points signaling that the recent correction may have presented a significant buying opportunity.
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